The fight to save the Census continues as CCSD et al vs The Government of Canada will be heard in the Federal Court on November 23, 2011 at 09:30AM.  CCSD and 12 other partners are fighting for Canada’s equal right to be counted in the Mandatory Short Form, the only mandatory tool left in the group of census surveys that reaches every Canadian.

Visit the site for information on how to get involved.

He spoke cautiously. One of his main points was that this government does not back down. His focus early in the campaign against the census was on finding a way for the decision to be reversed that would allow the government to save face – a compromise of some sort. It is too late for that, which means that it is too late to expect a return to the former census status quo under this government.

My own thought is that possibly it was too late from quite early on. Under an adversarial political system, the focus of the opposition parties is on causing the government to lose face, as much, as eary and as as often as possible.

So if there won’t be a return to the status quo under this government, can anything be done?

What Mckinnon suggested was that we see the census change as an opportunity. Statistics Canada has always been reluctant to experiment with changes to the methodology of the census because that would lead to a loss of comparability. But now we have an enforced discontinuity. So why not look at alternatives – take a real look at how best to collect data that meets our national needs for planning and research?

The alternative that McKinnon mentioned is to use administrative data. This is the approach used by some European countries (the Dutch model was talked about in a later session yesterday afternoon). This approach requires a national sampling frame with a unique identifier for each person in Canada to which administrative data could be linked – tax, immigration, employment, etc. Of course, I’m not sure a government with a libertarian bent would really go for such a national tracking system, a point McKinnon alluded to as well. An audience member mentioned the American Community Survey model – a rolling, large sample mandatory survey.

McKinnon ended by emphasizing that the government doesn’t care what statisticians, librarians and other academics think, and neither, in general, does the general public. So our role should be to encourage end users to speak up: health planners, business owners, transportation engineers and others.

Many such groups have already spoken up. So my questions are: can we get them to do more? And can we get anyone to hear?

Very preliminary numbers on web completion rates of the NHS by people who filled out their Census form online are at about 60%. The Statistics Canada people were positive about this, but IMHO 60% is not good, especially for something that’s replacing a census. They will be doing followup with the non-responders, which may increase responses somewhat. We were told that the 40%-odd non-completion rate includes a small percentage who began their NHS but stopped before finishing. It will be interesting to see how NHS completion by people who got the paper census; my guess is they will be lower.

Groups exhibiting or likely to exhibit non-response bias were discussed; they include people with lower SES, immigrants and aboriginals as well as an additional group I hadn’t thought of before: males under 24.

Apparently the language questions that were added at the last minute to the short census to ward off a lawsuit caused some issues: they had to add another fold to the form to get it to mail, and there’s some concern that recipients won’t unfold fully and notice the additional questions.

Due to lack of resources, there will be no microdata file from the census, only the NHS one will be produced, though it will of course include the census questions. Vince Gray noted that this will make it impossible for researchers to check sample bias in their NHS analyses against a mandatory sample; the concern was noted.

We had also an interesting little discussion on Statistics Canada’s lack of a preservation policy, sparked by some comments from Laine Ruus on the loss of the print census publications.

The IASSIST international data conference will be going on later this week. I’m very much looking forward to the opening plenary on Wednesday: Ian Mckinnon, Chair of the Canadian National Statistics Council, will be discussing the Census issue. The program notes that the “National Statistics Council (is) the group that is tasked to provide Statistics Canada with its best advice. This advice did NOT include cancelling the long form census and substituting a voluntary National Household Survey.”

Thanks to Gail Curry for bringing this to my attention!

Statistics Canada has the official announcement and the new chief’s biography.

See the Liberal Party’s Press release for more information. The bill’s progress can also be tracked at the  Parliament of Canada site LEGISINFO. It still has several hurdles to pass.

More to come as the story develops.